Polls show Harris struggling to match Biden’s 2020 numbers as Republicans see unexpected inroads among Black voters.
October 15, 2024 — Vice President Kamala Harris is encountering notable challenges in securing the level of Black voter support needed to win the White House in 2024, as Republicans—led by former President Donald Trump—make unexpected gains among this critical demographic.
Recent polling from The New York Times/Siena College revealed that Harris currently holds 78% support from Black voters, a decline from the 90% share President Joe Biden secured in 2020. While the majority of Black voters still plan to back Harris, the shift reflects both dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party and strategic Republican outreach.
Poll Breakdown: Erosion of Democratic Support
| Year | Democratic Candidate | Black Voter Support (%) | Republican Support (%) | Margin |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 92 | 7 | +85 Dem |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | 90 | 9 | +81 Dem |
| 2024 | Kamala Harris | 78 | 15 | +63 Dem |
The shift in allegiance appears to be driven by frustration with unmet Democratic promises, particularly among Black men and younger voters. Only 70% of Black men plan to vote for Harris, down from Biden’s 85% in 2020, while 20% of Black men expressed support for Trump.
“They sweep table scraps off the table like we’re trained dogs and say, ‘This is for you,’” remarked LaPage Drake, a Texas-based small business owner who now backs Trump.
Democratic Outreach: Harris Struggles to Close the Gap
Harris’s campaign has ramped up efforts to re-engage Black voters, including a tour of historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and media appearances. A recent interview on the podcast All the Smoke highlighted Harris’s focus on economic justice and decriminalizing marijuana—an effort aimed at appealing to Black men.
Former President Barack Obama has also joined the campaign, urging Black men to support Harris despite lingering reluctance.
“Some of you aren’t feeling the idea of a woman as president,” Obama said at a rally in Pittsburgh, addressing concerns that gender bias may be a factor.
However, critics argue that Obama’s approach risks alienating voters further by framing skepticism of Harris as inherently gendered. “We can think for ourselves,” said one voter in response to Obama’s comments.
Trump Gains: Strategic Outreach and Economic Messaging
Trump’s outreach strategy has involved targeted advertising, outreach events, and a message focused on jobs, crime, and immigration—resonating with parts of the Black electorate.
According to polling, 40% of Black voters now favor stricter immigration policies, including deportations, while 41% support building a border wall—positions more aligned with Trump than Harris.
Economic Concerns Dominate the Race
The economy remains the top issue among Black voters. Seventy percent rate the economy as either fair or poor, and rising inflation has taken a toll on households. Over 70% of Black voters report cutting back on groceries due to rising costs.
Harris has sought to highlight policies aimed at reducing health care costs, expanding business loans, and supporting first-time homebuyers. However, polling shows that many Black voters feel these efforts have not gone far enough.
A Close Race with High Stakes
The shift in Black voter support could significantly impact battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan—key to Harris’s path to the presidency.
Harris’s support remains strong among Black women (83%), but her decline among men is worrying Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign is working to consolidate its gains by emphasizing traditional values and portraying Harris as out of touch with working-class Americans.
Harris Pushes Back on Criticism
During a recent town hall with radio host Charlamagne tha God, Harris defended her record and addressed concerns that Democrats have taken Black voters for granted.
“One of the biggest challenges I face is mis- and disinformation,” Harris said. She also promised new economic initiatives, including loan forgiveness and down-payment assistance, to support Black communities.
When pressed on her record as a prosecutor, Harris maintained that she had been “the most progressive prosecutor on marijuana cases” in California and reiterated her commitment to decriminalizing marijuana.
Looking Ahead: A Battle for the Black Vote
As election day approaches, both campaigns are doubling down on their efforts to secure Black voter support. Harris plans to attend a series of events in Black churches and communities, while Trump will continue his targeted outreach to Black men.
“We are working to remind people what’s at stake,” Harris said in Detroit, highlighting the broader importance of the election.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for the Election
With polls showing a close race and shifting allegiances among Black voters, the 2024 election may come down to turnout and voter engagement in key communities. Whether Harris can rally the support she needs—or whether Trump can capitalize on discontent—remains to be seen.
| Issue | Harris Support (%) | Trump Support (%) |
| Economy | 75 | 17 |
| Crime/Public Safety | 65 | 28 |
| Immigration | 52 | 40 |
This is a developing story. Stay tuned for updates.
